Entrecard Will Experience Slower Growth and Possibly a “Crash”
Entrecard may be doomed to slower growth as its viral web effect wears off or worst case scenario a full blown “crash”. Although Entrecard is a form of web “cocaine” only the most addicted users will stay with the system if things start going badly.
I call Entrecard web “cocaine” because that is what it is. Users get lured into the system by friends and other like themselves and use the system to grab a bump of traffic and a raise to their Alexa. It can easily be done if you drop enough, and most webmasters have the Alexa toolbar installed raising Entrecard users websites Alexa ranks.
Once you’re in you’re hooked. You can’t stop using the system of you will see a drop in your Alexa rank and traffic. Since I assume the goal of most websites is to get a lot of traffic and become known, you will want to keep using the system.
This addiction is not that bad though. There are positives and negatives to the Entrecard system. The positive, traffic and networking with webmasters.
The negative is that it takes time to drop all those cards. To drop the daily maximum (300) it takes a little while. Also of course your bounce rate will go up as webmasters just come to your blog to drop cards and don’t read your content.
Personally I drop around 100 cards a day these days (Yes, I’m “hooked” too). I reciprocal drop to all those webmasters that drop on my blog. As a result I get quite a few credits that I use to promote and advertise my blog on the Entrecard system.
Why it Might Slow Down
The system is on the edge of a slow down and if things get worse it could turn into a full blown collapse that would make Entrecard an option that bigger blogs stay away from. As a result this would lower the value of the system as the bigger blogs are where the system really shines (Being able to have a ad on JohnChow for a day for like 250 credits).
As a user I have seen the number of active blogs in the system go down and the number of users become limited to those that constantly drop on my blog (plus a few others every day). Granted, I’m not saying it will die completely but not become the huge web entity that Graham (Entrecards owner) wants it to be.
As the viral effect wears off Entrecards growth will slow down and some users will leave as they get tired of the system or as their blogs grow to a level when they feel that they can put that ad space to better use.
Sure, a slowdown is eminent, but a collapse?
The Reason For A Possible Collapse
The dagger that could crush Entrecard system is their new introduction of a marketplace system.
Entrecard users have been selling credits for some time at around $5/1000 credits. Graham is trying to capitalize on this by introducing a marketplace system. This can be good for business as he will make a percentage off each transfer, but bad because as inflation and competition moves in, he is devaluing his own currency and as a effect diluting the effectiveness of his system.
Let me play out a scenario for you, I hire twenty people in
I have seen this happen in online games and other virtual marketplaces. Inflation takes hold for things because of the easy accessibility of credits that aren’t being used. When this happens, you will see people moving away, slowing down Entrecards growth and perhaps “crashing” it completely.
Wrap-up
What do you guys think, should the Entrecard marketplace be introduced or is it doomed anyways as the effect I described above could be copied or replicated through the other mediums of selling Entrecredits (you hire the cheap labor and sell the credits yourself)? I personally enjoy the system at the moment and see nothing wrong with it albeit maybe a bit higher bounce rate due to droppers leaving before they read any content. The system is definitely going to experience slower growth in the future but enough of listening to me talk, what do you guys think about this?
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You’ve got a point, I’ve never been a fan of the whole buy/sell credits thing. To me, Entrecard is much more about the community aspect than the credits, and that’s what a lot of people don’t realize.
The splog signups do seem to be on the rise, but most don’t even participate at all.
I’m pretty sure Graham has considered these things, and is probably devising plans as we speak.
Maybe he has but maybe he got greedy and as a result will run EC to the ground. We’ll have to wait and see. Your right its a community not a market. Its also an effective advertising tool at the moment…
Hi Max,
Another great post and gotta say I love your writing style.
I have not used entrecard yet myself but I think I should give it a spin and test the results. Hopefully I only get hooked on it if its producing results.
Just out of curosity do you notice any big spikes in traffic from entrecard and feed signups?
cheers
David
I too am not a big fan of the marketplace idea. In fact I really don’t like the idea of buying/selling credits. However, I do enjoy Entrecard and have met some cool people there (yes you are one of them), so hopefully it will stay a float.
You are not giving me enough credit.
First, we fully plan to limit the amount of credits that get exchanged each day. So it will still be a limited supply.
Second, there will be an algorithm as to who’s credits get sold. Your blogger in India with a free blog credit farming will soon learn that his credits have no value in our economy because our system will simply not let him cash them. It will work on a trusted-priority based system using a special formula I cannot disclose.
The ability to purchase credits will actually fuel our growth because we will do it right. So many people out there do not want to waste the time clicking to earn credits, and would rather purchase credits to buy ads with and to buy things in the shop. Likewise, many of our richer members would like to earn money selling their credits. The solution is perfect and will not be done with naivete.
I wasnt expecting a response direct from entrecard, very impressive.
Great response Graham, I will definately trial the effectiveness and publish my results now.
@ Meatshake - no but I do get a fair amount of unique visitors from it and some readers. It is worth having up if you have an extra minute to spare.
@ Jon, I agree. It is a good community (the core) and I enjoy the website a lot don’t get me wrong. But I do feel that there is a problem of the market. I think Graham might need to tweak a bunch of stuff once it is out, that’s to be expected. The question is how much the price of EC’s will fall. The further it falls, the worse it is for the big blogs that have the widget. If it is so cheap to advertise on their website, they will take it off eventually as they feel they can sell the ad space at a higher price
@ Graham - Wasn’t quite expecting you, the big cheese to comment, but let me address your concerns. I am giving you credit for doing a great job with the system so far, but I am pointing out that the viral effect is wearing off. I am also pointing out potential problems with the market system. No matter how many safeguards you have to some extent some will fall through the cracks. Plus do you really want to spend/have to spend all that time moderating account. If you have the manpower to do so, more power to you. At this point I feel Entrecard should be focusing more on growing and expanding their service rather than having to moderate accounts selling credits. Just my personal two cents.
yeah….it’s like gold farmers in China…soon we’re gonna have entrecard credit farmers. I really wonder how the exchange system will work out, though.
That’s the point I was making. While we have honest credits being sold these days, as soon as someone moves in with a system that I outlined. We will see the prices going down and the quality of the Entrecard system perhaps being compromised.
Good point Max. I use entrecard for get some traffic, nothing more. I drop less than 100 cards per day, I have not time to drop hundred of cards daily.
I have seen that many users became a fans of entrecard, dropping several/300 cards everyday. After a week, their blog cost between 500 and 700 credits, something that I consider absurd. I would never pay for that, in fact, I never spend my credits, rarely I buy advertising in other blogs….
Then, after two weeks. you will see their blogs in the bottom of their category, costing between 0 and 100. What happened? They get bored.
I think that entrecard is loosing credibility. Although the number of blogs has increased considerably, they should add the feature to buy/sell credits to keep their users dropping cards…
They are possibly adding it, that is the marketplace feature, the one I feel could ruin Entrecard further…… But I agree people are getting bored..
“Hotshot” blogs stopped using entrecard already, concerned with their bounce rate. I think, JohnChow had a low value on entrecard because many have realized that he doesn’t reciprocate the drops anymore, I don’t even see his ads on other blogs.
Speaking of entrecard credibility, they should remove members that aren’t actually displaying their ec widget. Its abusive to the ec and irritating to card droppers.
For myself, I believe that I am feeling the EntreCard Fatigue.
Been spending too much time dropping EntreCards. O_O
Now, I try my best to minimize time on dropping EntreCards and focus on networking sincerely with like minded EntreCarders.
@ glitch - I agree, it is irritating if you sign up but don’t display the widget. Most big bloggers don’t reciprocate they just don’t have the time. The bounce rate is a factor but most don’t advertise it, so honestly if you cut out your EC you can calculate your real bounce rate and still have that traffic spike and those potential new readers come to your blog.
@ Deimos - You are a power dropper, that is only to be expected. I try to use Entrecard to network more than drop like you are. Dropping 300 cards a day and getting 100 dropped back is frustrating and honestly, there is no reason why you should have to spend that amount of time doing a menial task if you don’t want to. You can cut back buddy
Wow. Impressive post.
1. Because, I’ve never considered outsourcing my entrecard farming to India. Perhaps running their servers through anonymous proxy might make it difficult for Entrecard to catch. (or obvious. I’m new to the game. And, I’m not serious about overseas outsourcing, either)
2. Because, you got Graham Langdon to comment.
3. Because, I never really thought about Entrecard as a community. Just signed on, but always questioned the quality of traffic that you get passing through. Do people just drop, or do they stop as well.
4. Because I’m trying to boost our Alexa ranking to open some PayPerPost doors and maybe Entrecard is the way to do it.
Thanks for the insights. Bravo on Graham.
The idea of essentially creating a class system (call it trust ranking, or whatever you want) seems like it would divide EntreCard, not help it grow.
Besides that, whatever the system is based on, it has to allow the regular (non-farming) user to act without adversely affecting them. And all that will lead to is the farmers getting smarter. The only solution to that is constant moderation, which would risk things grinding to a halt.
If there are people who truly want to advertise on the “network”, without participating in the rest of EC, then just bypass the credits alltogether, and collect cash from them! You could still share revenue with the ECers, but then again, I don’t think everything need be about money.
But in summary, I do think a credit market will end up hurting the original idea.
@WebDiggin - to answer a few things. I would say a majority of the users don’t really read your content but just stop by to drop their card. That being said if you do a great job of catching their attention this can change.
In terms of Alexa, entrecard is a decent way of increasing it because I have a feeling that most users have the toolbar installed (many webmasters do, I personally do)
@Simon I couldn’t have summed it up better myself. As I said to Graham, there is no way to keep 100% of the farmers out and while you may catch a few, there will still be the effect I described. Ultimately you have to think, do you want to spend all that time monitoring it, or do you want to make Entrecard better for its real users.
In terms of a divide in community, I agree. Creating a class system would personally make me feel inferior if I was on the bottom and may discourage newer users.
Great post, surely made me think. I do hope EntreCard won´t crash since I do like the networking and advertisement part of it, finding some really great blogs that I enjoy reading without having to spend a lot of time.
As for Graham´s redirection “Second, there will be an algorithm as to who’s credits get sold. Your blogger in India with a free blog credit farming will soon learn that his credits have no value in our economy because our system will simply not let him cash them. It will work on a trusted-priority based system using a special formula I cannot disclose.” How is that solution going to work, there are probably easy ways around this protection system, forwarding EC´s to different accounts before it actually reaches the account which will do the selling.
Hopefully this is one of those blogs
In terms of the solution, the answer will be that credit farmers will get smarter and Entrecard will have to debate that people will monitor the system and spend their time banning these people (moderators). I personally feel this will deter growth in Entrecard rather than fuel it. Graham and I must disagree, but it will have to be tested……
@Mattaw:
Well, I drop 300 daily and get like 200-300+ dropped back in return, but seeing that all those blogs are not really of my interest, and those bloggers are quite unlikely to leave a sincere comment in my blog, kinda makes it quite demoralizing.
I decided to take an Entre-Break and only drop on sites that I would like to network sincerely with, as well as continue to reciprocate drops.
Would not want to actively drop on sites that I find little interest in unless they dropped on me first.
Hell yeah, I am like so totally tired of dropping EntreCards!
Cheers!
I’m real new to entrecard so I wasn’t aware of the whole concept.I also wasn’t lured here either but I do have to say for my purposes it seems to be a great thing.Since reading this article I will have to be more aware as to whats going on.I really hope there isn’t a total collapse so far my experience has been a positive one.Thanks for the info.
@ Deimos - Exactly, perhaps that is the right path of action. Only dropping on blog with similar fields. Perhaps there is a similar fields option that can be built into EC? Take a break from dropping, until you feel like you want to honestly.
@Gregorio - There might be, and there might not be. It matters how Graham handles everything. Look into the networking element of EC it really helps.
Seems EC just got funding, valuing them at around $1.1 million:
http://mashable.com/2008/03/28/entrecard/
Wise investment?
Not necessarily. It still stands to be seen. It is to early to hear. Many new companies get funding and then die. In fact an Ontario company got 160 million funding last year, then disaster struck and they had to lay off half the company. This happens all the time. With Entrecard still so new, I’d have to say it is way to early to tell.
I think you maybe right about the slowdown, but I doubt they’ll crash entirely. If you want a really quick way to drop your card I have a system in place that does make it much quicker/easier. The first 40-50 people on the list are good for reciprocating drops if you wanna be added to the list. You can check it out here: http://www.tysblog.com/entecard_dropping/
Ty - the point is the slowdown. Even if you have a core list of 600 active bloggers, that is only 10% of the system. Also, what are entrecards revenues so far? Not much. Even with their new investment they will burn through money and I’m still trying to find their monetization strategy.